Turn from-my iron ore on the steel net! Tangshan production limit is not expected, small adjustment of steel prices!

On the 5th, the domestic steel market fell slightly, and Tangshan Pu Fangbo fell 40 reports 3620. Affected by the news of the establishment of the ore research group, today even the main force of the iron fell sharply, and steel futures also followed the fall. Recently, steel demand was weak and businesses were loose.

On the 5th, the main shock of the snail fell and the closing price was 3984. It continued to be below MA5. DIF and DEA had a downward trend. The RSI indicator line was located at 49-59 and was running on the Brin Belt. From the technical point of view, the snail may still be empty, but the adjustment is limited.

On the 5th, two construction steel production companies lowered the factory price by 20-30 yuan/ton.

Steel spot market
Construction steel: On July 5, the average price of spiral steel in 25 major cities in the country was 4,119 yuan/ton, which was 13 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day. Reticulated steel spot market merchants quoted generally lower, the downstream demand is not warm. At present, the business mentality is generally cautious, and believes that for the current continuous decline in demand, combined with this week's expansion of inventory, prices or narrow adjustment.

Hot rolled rolls: On July 5, the average price of hot rolled rolls in 4.75 major cities in the country was 3,919 yuan per ton, which was 8 yuan per ton lower than the previous trading day. Today, the black commodity futures market is weakening, spot prices are falling in the afternoon, and the overall transaction is poor. At present, the actual terminal demand is not good, and the market mentality is divided. Businesses with more inventory in hand choose to take out some of the pre-profit resources and reduce inventory pressure. The merchants with low inventory are reluctant to sell low, and the prices are basically on the market. If they can go out, they will not sell the goods at a price. Some merchants are optimistic about the later period. They think that although the Tangshan production limit does not reach expectations, the strength has declined., However, there is still some room for increase in terms of both policy and cost. At present, a large part of the market resources are in the hands of cash companies and investment companies. They have eaten a batch of spot insurance in the early stages. If the price of the later period falls, the floor profit is sufficient or a part of the spot is sold at a low price. Or will form a certain impact on market prices, on the whole, it is expected that next week's hot volume prices will be weak shock.

Cold rolled rolls: On July 5, the average price of cold rolls of 1.0 mm in 24 major cities in the country was 4,294 yuan/ton, a drop of 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today, affected by the news of iron ore profit, the futures disk fell sharply, the raw material hot rolling fell in a narrow range, and the cold rolling price followed the downward trend; On the demand side, the actual demand for the terminal did not improve well, and the processing volume of the processing centers did not increase significantly. However, according to the current thermal-cooling spread / supply reduction, especially after the recent price increase, It is believed that the settlement cost of steel mills is certainly not low, so merchants are not willing to sell goods too low. Taken together, it is expected that the price of the nationwide cold rolling roll will be weak and stable next week.

Zhonghou board: On July 5, the average price of 20mm board in 24 major cities in the country was 4002 yuan per ton, which was 6 yuan per ton lower than the previous trading day. Futures prices fell slightly today, under the influence of traders are bearish after the market, the price is slightly loose. In terms of transactions, the market demand is very weak in the near future, and the overall transaction situation is general. In terms of steel mills, this week's CG overhaul, steel mills 'operating rate dropped by 1.54 % from last week, and capacity utilization rate dropped by 0.41 % from last week. It is expected that CG production will resume next week, and steel mills' operating rate and capacity utilization rate will be slightly improved. On the inventory side, this week's steel plant inventory and social inventory both slightly reduced, compared with last week's 1.04 % of total inventory, compared with the same period last year, an increase of 7.61 %. Taken together, the short-term market supply and demand are weak, and it is expected that the price of the medium thick plate will be mainly volatile next week.

Raw materials spot market
Import mines: On the 5th, 61.5 % PB powder mines in Qingdao Port reported 858 yuan/ton, a drop of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today, imported mines are still walking down the channel, and it is difficult for ports in various regions to support spot. At present, although traders do not want to fall, but as the main contract of the company fell again and again, the buyer strongly reduced the price. In the case of steel mills, the picking of goods is at an advantage. On the one hand, the large environment is falling. On the other hand, the profit restoration brought by the Tangshan production limit allows steel mills to reduce the cost of tons of iron without deliberately raising production.
Coke: 5 days Coke market weak operation. Recently, Hebei Handan, Tangshan area steel mills blast furnace production restrictions are being implemented, weak demand, Coke procurement willingness is poor, some areas of coke enterprises have begun to accumulate, in terms of current supply and demand and inventory, Coke vulnerable situation has been difficult to improve; In terms of Jiao enterprise, Jiao enterprise was close to the profit and loss line after 300 losses. At the same time, Shanxi region responded to the government's "100 days to clear zero" environmental protection. A few Jiao enterprises have planned to limit production to reduce profit losses and have a pessimistic mentality.
Waste steel: On the 5th, the scrap steel market was narrowly integrated, and the price adjustment steel mills rose more and less. The price increase steel mills were mainly concentrated in East China, rising by 20-60 yuan/ton, and the price reduction steel mills fell by 20-30 yuan/ton. Today, iron ore futures have fallen significantly, and scrap steel has been affected by the rise in iron ore in the previous period. The price has been supported favourably. Now the market is afraid of falling. In some areas, due to the environmental restrictions on production in the East China market and the adjustment of prices in the early stages of sand and steel, coupled with the tight market resources, the profit of scrap steel is getting weaker and weaker. The local merchants have a strong preference for goods, and the arrival of steel mills continues to be poor, and they can only continue to pull up and absorb goods. This led to an increase in the price of the local market. At present, the high temperature and rainy season continues to affect, the transportation conditions of scrap steel are limited, and the attitude of the scrap steel market in various regions is different. In the short term, steel mills adjust the price of scrap steel according to their own conditions. It is expected that the scrap steel market will be dominated by narrow swings tomorrow.
Special steel spot market
Youte Steel: On the 5th, the price of Youte Steel was stable, and individual markets fell slightly by 10 yuan per ton. In the country, it was 45 # 4022 yuan per ton, 40 Cr4257 yuan per ton, 20 CrMnTi4352 yuan per ton, and 20 # 3954 yuan per ton. In the previous two weeks, the price of Youte Steel rebounded too fast, and Hangzhou 45# rose by 250 yuan/ton. Pull up too fast, the market needs time to digest the price increase resources, short-term special steel market is expected to maintain short-term high consolidation. In July, the downstream demand of Youte Steel was still poor, and the enthusiasm for procurement was weak. The merchants digested the resources of the low prices in the early stages. It is expected that the short-term price stability of Youte steel market.
Industrial wire: On the 5th, the price of industrial wire materials in the country fell slightly, of which the average national price of cold heading, pulling wire and hard wire was equal to the previous trading day, fell by 2 yuan per ton and fell by 1 yuan per ton, as of the close of the day. The average price of cold heading in the country is 4217-4267 yuan/ton, the average price of pulling wire is 4121 yuan/ton, and the average price of hard line is 4264 yuan/ton. Affected by the external market and the weak transaction, the overall market performance today is poor, the overall industrial wire products are weak, and the inventory is currently measured. The total number of industrial wire products is 489,300 tons, which is a decrease of 0.49 million tons from the same caliber statistics last week., a decrease of 1 %; The total number of transactions this week was 11,900 tons, a decrease of 16,400 tons from last week, a decrease of 12.78 %. In the short term, the industrial wire market is weak.
Steel Market Forecast
Supply-side: Mysteel surveyed the utilization rate of ironmaking capacity of 247 blast furnaces at 81.13 %, down 2.69 %, or 0.3 %, compared with the same period last year. This week, 56 of the 138 blast furnaces in tangshan were overhauled(excluding long-term shutdowns), and capacity utilization was 69.88 %, down 3.98 % from last week, 6.19 % from the same period last month, and 19.68 % from the same period last year.
Due to the limited production of blast furnaces in Tangshan Steel Works, steel production fell this week, and Tangshan still has individual blast furnace plans for overhaul next week. It is worth noting that with the rebound in steel prices in the early stages, corporate profits improved, this week's production capacity utilization rate of building materials steel plants picked up, Tangshan outside the other areas of steel mills active expansion.
Demand: In late June, due to environmental protection restrictions and external environmental relief and other good news, the steel market price Qisheng. This week, however, demand for steel returned to weakness and terminal acceptance of higher prices was low. According to the Mysteel survey, 237 traders traded 191,000 tons of building materials per day last week, compared with less than 180,000 tons this week.
Inventory: According to Mysteel research, this week's steel social inventory 11.62 million tons, Zhouhuanbi's increase of 1.5 %; The stock of sample steel mills was 4.61 million tons, and Zhouhuanbi fell by 1.5 %.
Taken together, under the Environmental Protection restrictions in Tangshan and other places, steel production has declined. Once the benefits have improved, it will still increase the enthusiasm of steel mills and weaken the production restriction effect. In the off-season background, steel demand is difficult to improve. It is expected that the supply and demand of the short-term steel market are weak, and the steel price or narrow range adjustment.